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Trader support We'll email you to make you aware of resources to help develop your trading plan. The apparent stabilizing of the dollar , then, might let some air out of the currency down under. In , the winter of despair was followed by the spring of uncertainty. For now at least, they are responding by dumping emerging market currencies. As you can see from the chart above which shows a cross-section of emerging market forex , most currencies peaked in the beginning of May and have since sold-off significantly.
If not for the rally that started off the year, all emerging market currencies would probably be down for the year-to-date, and in fact many of them are anyway. Still, the returns for even the top performers are much less spectacular than in and There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment. First of all, risk appetite is waning.
Over the last couple months, every flareup in the eurozone debt crisis coincided with a sell-off in emerging markets. Some analysts believe that because emerging economies are generally more fiscally sound than their fundamental counterparts, that they are inherently less risky. Unfortunately, while this proposition makes theoretical sense, you can be assured that a default by a member of the eurozone will trigger a mass exodus into safe havens — NOT into emerging markets.
While emerging market Asia and South America is somewhat insulated from eurozone fiscal problems. On the other hand, they remain vulnerable to an economic slowdown in China and to rising inflation. Emerging market central banks have avoided making significant interest rate hikes hence, rising bond prices — for fear of inviting further capital inflow and stoking currency appreciation — and the result has been rising price inflation. You can see from the chart above that the darkest areas symbolizing higher inflation are all located in emerging economic regions.
While high inflation is not inherently problematic, it is not difficult to conceive of a downward spiral into hyperinflation. Again, a sudden bout of monetary instability would send investors rushing to the exits.
While most analysts myself included remain bullish on emerging markets over the long-term , many are laying off in the short-term.
While we aim to analyze and try to forceast the forex markets, none of what we publish should be taken as personalized investment advice. Forex exchange rates depend on many factors like monetary policy, currency inflation, and geo-political risks that may not be forseen.
There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment.
Stocks had been higher then finished flat while bonds were quiet.